Bakery ingredient prices did not move in one direction in the United States. In August 2026, the CPI for flour and prepared flour mixes was 0.6% higher than a year earlier, while eggs were 23% lower. Sugar and sweets were 6.1% higher, milk was 4.1% higher, and butter was 8.3% lower. These figures come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the U.S. city average and compare August 2026 with August 2025 unless another period is stated.
Table of contents
- Flour and cereal input prices
- Egg and dairy ingredient prices
- Sugar and sweetener prices
- Fats, oils, and butter
- Bakery product price context
- Annual history and the 2026 outlook
Flour and cereal input prices
The BLS CPI for cereals and bakery products was 2.6% higher in August 2026 than in August 2025. Within that broad category, cereals and cereal products rose 3.1%, while flour and prepared flour mixes rose only 0.6%. That spread matters when interpreting bakery inflation: the broad category includes more than the flour used in a mixing bowl.
The BLS reported a 3.1% year-over-year increase for breakfast cereal. Rice, pasta, and cornmeal rose 3.4% as a group, while rice alone rose 4.7%. These are U.S. city-average consumer price measures for August 2025 to August 2026, not wholesale quotations for a particular bakery supplier.
The year-over-year flour result was modest, but the latest monthly movement was higher. On an unadjusted basis, the CPI for flour and prepared flour mixes rose 1.1% from July to August 2026. A monthly change and a year-over-year change answer different questions: the first describes the most recent month, while the second compares with the same month one year earlier.
| BLS category | August 2026 change from August 2025 | Measurement period |
|---|---|---|
| Flour and prepared flour mixes | +0.6% | August 2025–August 2026 |
| Cereals and cereal products | +3.1% | August 2025–August 2026 |
| Rice, pasta, and cornmeal | +3.4% | August 2025–August 2026 |
| Rice | +4.7% | August 2025–August 2026 |
| Flour and prepared flour mixes, unadjusted monthly | +1.1% | July–August 2026 |
Source: BLS, Table 2: CPI-U by detailed expenditure category, August 2026.
Egg and dairy ingredient prices
Egg prices show the strongest contrast in this set of ingredient statistics. The BLS CPI for eggs was 23% lower in August 2026 than in August 2025. At the same time, eggs rose 3.5% from July to August 2026 on an unadjusted basis. A lower year-over-year index can therefore coexist with a higher one-month change.
Dairy results were mixed rather than uniformly inflationary. The CPI for dairy and related products was 0.3% lower year over year in August 2026. Milk moved in the opposite direction: milk prices were 4.1% higher, fresh whole milk was 4.7% higher, and fresh milk other than whole was 4% higher.
Cheese and related products were 3.8% lower than a year earlier, while other dairy and related products were 0.7% higher. For bakers and coffee-focused readers, the useful distinction is between the category label and the individual item: an aggregate dairy measure can be nearly unchanged even while milk, cheese, and other products move in different directions.
Source: BLS, Table 2: CPI-U by detailed expenditure category, August 2026. All figures in this section are U.S. city-average CPI changes unless identified as the July–August 2026 unadjusted monthly change.
Sugar and sweetener prices
The BLS CPI for sugar and sweets was 6.1% higher in August 2026 than in August 2025. That broad category contains important internal differences. Sugar and sugar substitutes were 0.5% lower year over year, while candy and chewing gum were 8.1% higher. Other sweets rose 1.7%.
The latest monthly reading was slightly softer for the overall category. Sugar-and-sweets prices fell 0.3% from July to August 2026 on an unadjusted basis. The monthly decline did not erase the 6.1% year-over-year increase because the two statistics use different comparison windows.
USDA annual figures provide additional historical context. U.S. sugar-and-sweets prices increased 3% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025 compared with 2024. USDA forecast sugar-and-sweets prices to increase 6.6% in 2026, with a prediction interval of 5.8% to 7.4%. The forecast is an estimate for the year, not an observation of August prices.
Source labels: BLS, Table 2: CPI-U by detailed expenditure category, August 2026; USDA Economic Research Service, Retail food price inflation subsided across most categories in 2024; USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook—Summary Findings; USDA ERS, U.S. food-at-home prices increased 2.3 percent in 2025, compared with 2024.
Fats, oils, and butter
Fats and oils also show why ingredient inflation needs item-level detail. The BLS CPI for fats and oils was 0.3% lower in August 2026 than in August 2025, but it rose 1.4% from July to August 2026 on an unadjusted basis.
Butter and margarine were both lower year over year. The CPI for butter and margarine fell 5.7%; butter alone fell 8.3%, and margarine fell 0.9%. Salad dressing fell 0.7%. In contrast, other fats and oils, including peanut butter, rose 2.5%, while peanut butter alone rose 4.7%.
The annual USDA record also shows a change in direction for the broader fats-and-oils category. U.S. fats-and-oils prices increased 2.4% in 2024, then decreased 0.8% in 2025 compared with 2024. These annual figures and the BLS August readings describe different time periods, so they should not be treated as interchangeable measures.
Source labels: BLS, Table 2: CPI-U by detailed expenditure category, August 2026; USDA Economic Research Service, Retail food price inflation subsided across most categories in 2024; USDA ERS, U.S. food-at-home prices increased 2.3 percent in 2025, compared with 2024.
Bakery product price context
Retail bakery products provide a downstream comparison with ingredients. The BLS CPI for bread was 3.8% higher in August 2026 than in August 2025. White bread rose 3.7%, and bread other than white rose 3.9%. Crackers, bread, and cracker products rose 4.5%.
Among sweet and fresh bakery products, cookies rose 5%, while cakes, cupcakes, and cookies as a group rose 3.1%. Fresh cakes and cupcakes rose 0.8%. Fresh sweetrolls, coffeecakes, and doughnuts rose 3.9%; other bakery products rose 1.7%; and fresh biscuits, rolls, and muffins rose 2%.
Not every bakery category increased. Frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts, and turnovers fell 2.1% year over year. On a monthly unadjusted basis, fresh biscuits, rolls, and muffins rose 0.7% from July to August 2026, while cookies rose 1.9%.
Source: BLS, Table 2: CPI-U by detailed expenditure category, August 2026. These are consumer price indexes for the U.S. city average, not a direct calculation of ingredient cost per recipe.
Annual history and the 2026 outlook
Egg prices have had a particularly uneven recent history in USDA’s annual series. U.S. egg prices increased 32.2% in 2022, 1.4% in 2023, 8.5% in 2024, and 21.9% in 2025. USDA forecast egg prices to decrease 29.4% in 2026, with a prediction interval from a 32.9% decrease to a 25.2% decrease.
That forecast is distinct from the BLS August observation: the BLS reported eggs 23% lower in August 2026 than in August 2025, while the USDA figure is an annual 2026 forecast. The periods, source series, and purposes differ, so the numbers should be read as related but not identical measures.
USDA reported that dairy-product prices increased 0.8% in 2025 compared with 2024, against average annual growth of 2.1% from 2006 through 2025. Cereal-and-bakery-product prices increased 1% in 2025 compared with 2024, against average annual growth of 2.8% over the 20-year period through 2025. Fats-and-oils prices decreased 0.8% in 2025 compared with 2024.
For 2026, USDA forecast dairy-product prices to increase 0.1%. It also forecast cereal-and-bakery-product prices to grow slower than their 20-year historical average. For sugar and sweets, the USDA forecast was higher: 6.6%, with a 5.8% to 7.4% prediction interval.
Taken together, these statistics describe a baking cost environment with substantial category differences. August 2026 data show flour slightly higher year over year, eggs and butter lower, milk higher, and sugar and sweets higher. The annual USDA outlook adds estimates for 2026, while the historical comparisons show that recent movements vary by ingredient group and by the time window used.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook—Summary Findings; USDA ERS, U.S. food-at-home prices increased 2.3 percent in 2025, compared with 2024.